MINISTERS in the North have been warned that Covid-19 infection rates will keep rising if both schools and the hospitality sector remain open, BBC News NI reports.
They have also been told expanding tighter measures currently in place in the Derry City and Strabane council area across NI will be “insufficient”.
Derry City and Strabane had further restrictions imposed mostly on the hospitality sector last Monday, October 5.
The warnings are contained in a paper from Health Minister Robin Swann.
The executive will meet later, amid pressure to impose new restrictions.
Health officials have suggested measures should last between four to six weeks to have the greatest effect.
But there are tensions between the five executive parties about the duration and nature of any further restrictions.
The executive has brought forward its usual weekly meeting from Thursday to address the crisis.
The paper states that based on the latest scientific advice, “a package of significant interventions” will be required “to prevent a further exponential rise in the virus” and adds that “single wider interventions are unlikely to be sufficient”.
There will only be a reduction in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations if the reproduction rate or R number is below 1, the document adds.
The R-number represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single person with coronavirus.
In the North of Ireland, it is currently estimated to be at about 1.5.
“The decrease in the epidemic will be greater the further R is below one and the longer that is maintained,” the paper states.
It also warns that “the peak number of hospitalisations will be reduced, provided that an intervention to reduce R to under 1 is made early this week”.
It is understood that officials have warned that delaying any restrictions by another week could equate to an additional 100 inpatients in NI’s hospitals.
It then goes on to examine the impact of closing schools and the hospitality sector.
Based on modelling from “a range of UK groups” going back to full lockdown – but with schools remaining open – would reduce the R-number to a “little less than 1”.
But a full lockdown with schools closed and the hospitality sector remaining open would result in the “value of R a little less than 1 or possibly greater than 1”, it adds.
It concludes that “it is not considered likely that R can be less than 1 with both schools and hospitality open”.
There is “clear” evidence that recent measures such as household restrictions have had some impact on reducing the rate of transmission, the document adds.
But it warns about the “counter effects” of executive decisions to open Higher and Further Education colleges and drink-only pubs.
It is understood the Department of Health wants any new measures in force by this Friday at the latest, but the executive will have the final say on any decisions.
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